'Bubble effect': Weight loss drug fueled growth is putting the pharma sector at risk, report finds

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the weight-loss and diabetes drug boom is creating a bubble risk for pharma, according to a deloitte report out monday. r&d returns for the top 20 pharma companies hit 7% for a third straight year, driven almost entirely by glp-1 drugs like wegovy and zepbound. strip those out and the return drops to just 2.9%, down from 3.8% in 2024.

obesity drugs now account for 38% of projected commercial inflows from the late-stage pipeline, and 25% of total forecast sales — up from 1% in 2022. for the first time in 16 years, oncology has been overtaken as the biggest contributor to late-stage pipeline value. deloitte's hanno ronte told cnbc: "it is a bubble, because so much is concentrated."

concentration is extreme: just 54 mega-blockbuster indications — 9% of the late-stage cohort — are forecast to generate 70% of total risk-adjusted peak sales. ronte said the bubble won't burst for patients, but the market has become overly dependent on a handful of assets, leaving the sector exposed to therapeutic-area-specific shocks.


source: cnbc_topnews
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