Inflation could get in the way of Warsh's desire to cut interest rates, CNBC survey finds

kevin warsh, trump's pick for fed chair, wants to cut rates. but the latest cnbc fed survey says oil prices and inflation will likely block him. respondents on average don't fully price in a single rate cut this year. only 58% of the 26 respondents see any cut at all. the average funds rate is forecast to hit 3.5% — just 0.14 percentage points below the current level. high oil prices are seen pushing up inflation by 0.6 percentage point this year while shaving half a point off growth. 81% believe crude will drive up core inflation too. the consumer price index forecast rose to 3.1%, up from 2.7% before the war. by a 69% to 31% margin, most respondents think the fed will look through the inflation and not hike. the probability of recession sits at 33%, little changed from march. growth forecasts have fallen steadily since the iran war began — gdp is now seen at 1.9%, down half a point from january. the s&p 500 is forecast to stay flat for the rest of the year before rising to around 7,700 in 2027.