A fresh financial crisis may be coming - it won't play out like the last one

a fresh financial crisis may be coming, but it won't look like 2008. bobby seagull, a former lehman brothers trader, showed up for his last day at canary wharf on 15 september 2008 with a shopping trolley and emptied his £300 vending machine card on chocolates. that day, thousands carried their careers out in cardboard boxes. today, warning lights are flashing again. private credit funds have grown from nothing to $2.5 trillion in 15-20 years, according to bank of england deputy governor sarah breeden. blackrock, blackstone, apollo and blue owl have all faced billions in withdrawal demands. breeden says there's "leverage on leverage on leverage" and "echoes of the global financial crisis." mohammed el-erian of allianz agrees: "certain similarities with 2007 that keep me awake at night." but larry fink of blackrock says "zero" similarities. oil has risen over 50% since before the conflict with iran, now above $100 a barrel. the strait of hormuz is effectively shut. the iea's fatih birol calls it "the greatest energy security crisis in history." over $2tn has poured into ai investments. 37% of the s&p 500's value sits in just seven companies. uk government debt is near 100% of national income, up from under 50% in 2008. the imf says "international cooperation is weaker" now.