UAE's departure from the OPEC oil cartel is not without precedence. Who could be next?

the uae left opec, a shock move that's exposing fractures in the cartel. the decision follows weeks of iranian missile and drone strikes and a blockade of the strait of hormuz that disrupted its exports. the uae pumped about 2.37 million barrels per day in march, compared with a sustainable capacity of roughly 4.3 million bpd. analysts pointed to kazakhstan as a key "flight risk" — it's been vastly overproducing. nigeria is another candidate, with the dangote refinery reducing its reliance on export markets and opec's price-support strategy. venezuela could also be next, with output recovering faster than expected and a potentially more u.s.-friendly political environment. its oil exports rose above a million barrels per day in march for the first time since september. opec+ is enforcing core production quotas that cut output by about 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2026. eight key producers, including saudi arabia and russia, agreed on april 5 to begin easing voluntary cuts, returning about 206,000 barrels per day to the market in may.