Is Meta's AI spending blitz working? The stock's next move depends on the answer

meta plans to spend as much as $169 billion this year, mostly on ai. the stock fell 29% in two months to $525 in late march, then rebounded 28% to $671. wednesday's earnings will test whether that recovery holds. the company signed a multibillion-dollar deal with amazon web services for graviton processors, committed $21 billion to coreweave on top of a prior $14.2 billion, and agreed to up to $27 billion with nebius. it also expanded its broadcom chip deal and is building four custom silicon options. meta cut about 8,000 jobs — 10% of its workforce — starting in may, plus 6,000 open roles, to help fund the buildout. morgan stanley said in late march that the market was too focused on ai costs and not enough on returns. the firm noted engagement is accelerating and called the layoffs a "bullish development." cantor fitzgerald expects meta to use its new muse spark model to improve engagement and monetization over the next few quarters. moffettnathanson called meta's enterprise push "uncertain and largely fantastical" but sees enterprise as one clear path to monetizing the ai spend.