Jet fuel bidding war breaks out as airlines confront ‘global stress test’ over shortages and cancellations

europe is scrambling for jet fuel after the iran war shut the strait of hormuz on feb 28. analysts at societe generale call it a "global stress test" for airlines. the continent needs about 1.6 million barrels a day, with 500,000 coming from imports. before the conflict, three-quarters of those imports came from the middle east. that supply is largely gone. the u.s. has stepped in, exporting a record 442,000 barrels a day in early april — about 200,000 above the five-year norm. europe is now getting roughly 200,000 barrels a day from the u.s., up from 30,000-60,000 before the war. but a middle east deficit of about 175,000 barrels a day remains. "we have to fight for every cargo," said benedict george of argus. prices keep climbing. airlines are reacting differently. lufthansa cut 20,000 flights, saving 40,000 metric tons of fuel. it has 80% of 2026 needs hedged at pre-crisis prices. air france-klm hiked long-haul economy fares by €100 round-trip. easyjet says no disruption and no surcharges. wizz air plans 17% summer growth, with 70% hedged. the international energy agency warned europe could run out of jet fuel in weeks. socgen analysts put it bluntly: paying more is manageable. not having it is existential.