In five charts - How UAE's exit could affect Opec's influence over the oil price

the uae is leaving opec, and one analyst called it "the beginning of the end of opec." the group formed in 1960 to coordinate oil production for steady revenue. it now includes 12 members plus a wider opec+ alliance with russia and others. the uae was the world's third biggest oil exporter in 2025, behind saudi arabia and iraq. it produced 3.1 million barrels a day. outside opec, experts think it could boost output by roughly a million barrels daily. but with the strait of hormuz blocked for eight weeks, one analyst says the short-term export impact is "zero." opec's share of global crude oil fell from 52.5% in 1973 to 36.7% in 2025. the us has been the top producer since 2018, pumping 13.6 million barrels a day. charles-henry monchau of syz group said losing a founding-era major producer is something opec "has never really survived" — it will continue, but with "materially less ability to set prices."