Shocking UAE exit rocks OPEC, but group will still hold significant sway over the oil market

the united arab emirates is leaving opec, effective may 1st. the exit shocked many in the energy world — the uae is opec's third-largest producer and has long been a key negotiator within the group, often smoothing over conflicts with iran alongside saudi arabia. the core issue is the quota system. the uae can produce more than its current 3.3 million barrels per day — it's invested tens of billions to build capacity toward 5 million — but was bound by the opec+ deal. now it's free to pump. without the uae, opec's global market share will fall below 30% for the first time ever, down from over 50% in the 1970s. the opec+ alliance still controls about 42% of the market. bank of america sees a base case of brent averaging $92.50 this year, but a "renewed hostilities" scenario could push it to $150. goldman upgraded its 2026 q4 brent forecast to $90, citing lower persian gulf output. jpmorgan notes that nearly all global spare capacity is in saudi arabia and the uae, and that capacity is "effectively cut off" from markets right now.