Half of ‘long shot’ Polymarket bets on military action are successful

half of the so-called "long shot" bets on polymarket about military action have actually paid out, according to a new analysis. that's a high win rate for wagers that were supposed to be unlikely — and it's raising fresh worries that prediction markets are leaking sensitive information. the finding covers bets placed on the platform that were considered low-probability at the time. the fact that half of them ended up being correct suggests some traders may have had access to non-public details about planned operations. regulators and intelligence officials have previously flagged polymarket as a potential channel for classified material to slip out through betting patterns.