Apple execs to talk China and tariffs, but will avoid discussing foldable iPhone, per traders on Kalshi

apple reports earnings thursday, its first call since announcing tim cook will step down in september and be replaced by hardware chief john ternus. traders on kalshi are betting on what gets discussed. china and tariffs are near-certain topics — traders put odds at 98% and 96% respectively. more divisive: google's gemini ai model gets a 27% chance of a mention. apple already has a deal to use gemini in apple intelligence, but wall street sees apple as the biggest ai laggard among megacap tech. traders mostly think apple won't talk about smart glasses — just 24% odds, despite reports the company has been working on an ai-supported pair. and the foldable iphone? only a 9% chance of any mention of "fold" or "foldable." a report this month said the timeline slipped, though bloomberg says a fall 2026 launch is still on track.