Six months out, control of the Senate is a dead heat, traders on Kalshi say

six months out from the midterms, traders on kalshi give both republicans and democrats a 50% chance of winning the senate. it's a dead heat. republicans' odds of keeping control fell from 67% on january 1, with declines accelerating in march as traders priced in the political fallout from the u.s.-iran war. trump's approval rating has dropped to its lowest of his second term in many polls. democrats face an uphill climb — they'd need to win states trump took by double digits in 2024, like ohio, iowa, texas or alaska. still, by mid-april, democrats were priced at 54% to win the chamber. bank of america economist claudio irigoyen wrote that these odds are creating "incentives" for the administration to resolve the iran war, pointing to the push for a deal. on polymarket, democrats hold a 52% chance, republicans 50%.