Why markets are surging in spite of war

tech stocks are pushing major indices higher even as war creates supply-side shocks. the s&p 500 and nasdaq have both hit fresh records this week, led by a handful of mega-cap names. the disconnect is stark — oil and commodity prices are up on supply fears, but investors are betting that tech earnings and ai spending will outweigh the macro drag. the rally is narrow. apple, microsoft, nvidia, and a few others account for most of the gains in the s&p. the equal-weight version of the index tells a different story: flat year-to-date. bond yields have ticked up too, which normally pressures growth stocks, but so far the momentum hasn't broken. is the optimism justified? the market is pricing in a soft landing — inflation cools, the fed cuts, and tech keeps growing. but if supply shocks push inflation higher and force the fed to hold steady, that narrow leadership could crack fast.