Voters will judge Trump on the economy - how is it doing?

the us economy grew at 2% annualised in q1 2026, a rebound from late 2025. trump will use the number to argue his approach works ahead of november midterms. but the headline masks a split: consumer spending grew just 1.6%, while tech and ai investment by giants like the big tech firms drove most of the growth. ing's james knightley called ai-linked investment "the main engine of growth" as consumer spending cools. the cost of living is what voters actually feel. brent crude hit $126 a barrel on thursday — a four-year high — before easing to $111. before the iran war started in late february, it traded around $73. the strait of hormuz closure from trump's strikes is the cause. the fed held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% on wednesday. march's inflation spike from the war killed hopes of cuts. pantheon's samuel tombs thinks cuts could be delayed until 2027 if the blockade stays. stock markets have recovered from early-war losses. the nasdaq is up ~10% since the conflict began, the s&p ~5%, the dow just over 1%. good for 401ks. but with republicans at risk of losing the house and possibly the senate, the election hinges on whether fuel and grocery prices come down before november.