Why the confusion around the Iran situation could get worse. How to profit anyway

the strait of hormuz is open, then it's closed. that's the last 72 hours of news from iran, where president trump conceded the government is "seriously fractured." there may be two or more factions claiming control, which is why you hear about a ceasefire one day and ships being fired on the next. jpmorgan's natasha kaneva notes iranian oil exports have collapsed to near zero, widening a pre-blockade supply shortfall to a 15-16 million barrel per day deficit. citigroup models a scenario where problematic strait flows could mean a total loss of 1.3 billion barrels, with brent crude averaging $110 this quarter before falling back to $80 in q4 if a deal is struck. goldman sachs analyst neil mehta suggests focusing on companies that benefit from long-term energy and data center demand. he likes conocophillips, forecasting a 21% total return, and has a buy on chevron. the firm also highlights natural gas producer eqt with a $68 target, and likes vistra and quanta services for the power buildout.