Kalshi traders don't see Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal until July

kalshi bettors see just a 42% chance that normal traffic flows through the strait of hormuz by june 1. they put the odds at 59% by july 1 and 61% by august 1. the contract uses the seven-day moving average of transit calls from imf portwatch. on wednesday, odds of a june 1 return fell below 50% after the u.s. and iran extended a ceasefire without disclosing any new agreement on reopening the strait or ending the u.s. naval blockade. that same day, iran said it seized two ships sailing through without authorization. only eight ships crossed the strait — three of them oil tankers — according to lseg data. before the war, daily traffic typically exceeded 100 ships. trump then threatened to "shoot and kill" any boat laying mines in the strait. brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel. ulrike hoffmann-burchardi, ubs chief investment officer for the americas, wrote that a reopening "remains elusive," pointing to iran's parliament speaker saying the strait won't reopen while the blockade is in place. she warned that prolonged high energy prices could weigh on growth.