Iran war, U.S. court’s tariff ruling delays India trade deal — but a bigger risk lies ahead

the india-u.s. trade deal remains unsigned past its mid-march target. a u.s. supreme court ruling on feb. 20 struck down trump's tariffs as illegal, and the iran conflict is pulling diplomatic bandwidth. an indian trade delegation left the u.s. on thursday without a conclusive announcement. the first tranche was expected by mid-march but talks continue. the u.s. administration will wrap up section 301 investigations in june, shifting leverage toward washington. "it's critical that the agreement is sealed by the end of may," said mark linscott, former assistant u.s. trade representative. if india fails to sign before the probe ends, it could face higher tariffs than the 18% agreed in february — down from 50% last august. india bargains for preferential access, but has limited room. "a tougher negotiating stance can pay off," said harsh pant of the observer research foundation, but prolonged delay risks losing strategic gain. india's russian crude imports hit nearly 50% in march. the u.s. presses india to buy more american energy, but high freight costs and incompatible refineries are obstacles. "the only win-win is to sign the interim agreement soon," linscott said.