Bettors on Kalshi now see Warsh likely confirmed by mid-May after DOJ drops Powell probe

odds on kalshi that kevin warsh gets confirmed as fed chair by mid-may jumped to 86% after the doj dropped its inquiry into jerome powell on friday. before the news broke monday morning, bettors had that chance at about 30%. the probe's end removes a key obstacle. senator thom tillis, a north carolina republican on the banking committee, had said he couldn't vote to advance warsh's nomination until the criminal investigation into powell was over. tillis hasn't made a statement since the inquiry was dropped. if he'd voted no alongside all democrats on the committee, warsh's nomination would have been blocked from reaching the full senate. on polymarket, bettors now see an 81% chance warsh is confirmed by may 15, and 98% by june 1.