How climate change threatens the economic backbone of the Pacific

kiribati, a pacific nation of 33 islands about the size of new york city, gets over 70% of its government revenue from selling tuna fishing licenses to foreign fleets. that's the highest proportion of any country. its exclusive economic zone spans 3.4 million sq km — bigger than india — and holds skipjack, yellowfin and bigeye tuna. but warming ocean temperatures threaten to push those tuna east, out of kiribati's waters. the country made $137m from fishing licenses in 2024. preliminary modelling from its fisheries ministry shows it could lose over $10m per year in access fees by 2050 under high emissions. even under a best-case low-emissions scenario, local fishermen will still see their catch drop — the line islands could lose two-thirds of theirs. the average person in kiribati eats about 100kg of fish a year, compared to 9kg in the us and 22kg in japan. the un's green climate fund launched a $156.8m project last year to help 14 pacific countries predict tuna stock shifts. kiribati is also building its own tuna processing plants and trying to diversify into tourism and renewable energy.