bbc_business

Voters will judge Trump on the economy - how is it doing?

the us economy grew at 2% annualised in q1 2026, a rebound from late 2025. trump will use the number to argue his approach works ahead of november midterms. but the headline masks a split: consumer spending grew just 1.6%, while tech and ai investment by giants like the big tech firms drove most of the growth. ing's james knightley called ai-linked investment "the main engine of growth" as consumer spending cools.

the cost of living is what voters actually feel. brent crude hit $126 a barrel on thursday — a four-year high — before easing to $111. before the iran war started in late february, it traded around $73. the strait of hormuz closure from trump's strikes is the cause.

the fed held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% on wednesday. march's inflation spike from the war killed hopes of cuts. pantheon's samuel tombs thinks cuts could be delayed until 2027 if the blockade stays.

stock markets have recovered from early-war losses. the nasdaq is up ~10% since the conflict began, the s&p ~5%, the dow just over 1%. good for 401ks. but with republicans at risk of losing the house and possibly the senate, the election hinges on whether fuel and grocery prices come down before november.

source: bbc_business
sentiment: +0.00 · impact: 0.60

Oil prices climb after disputed report of Iran strike on U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz

oil started the week higher on a disputed claim of an iranian strike on a u.s. navy ship in the strait of hormuz. the report, which hasn't been confirmed by u.s. officials, added fresh volatility to crude markets. the strait of hormuz is a key chokepoint

The markets are in the early stages of pricing in stagflation. Here’s what happens next.

source: marketwatch_top sentiment: -0.70 · impact: 0.80

Warsh's take on Fed independence is met with confusion and some concern

kevin warsh, trump's pick to lead the fed, is drawing confusion from six former fed officials over his views on fed independence. the sticking point: he draws a line between monetary policy — which he says should be "strictly independent" — and "non-monetary matters" like international

'Bubble effect': Weight loss drug fueled growth is putting the pharma sector at risk, report finds

the weight-loss and diabetes drug boom is creating a bubble risk for pharma, according to a deloitte report out monday. r&d returns for the top 20 pharma companies hit 7% for a third straight year, driven almost entirely by glp-1 drugs like wegovy and zepbound. strip those out

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Oil prices climb after disputed report of Iran strike on U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz

The markets are in the early stages of pricing in stagflation. Here’s what happens next.

Warsh's take on Fed independence is met with confusion and some concern

'Bubble effect': Weight loss drug fueled growth is putting the pharma sector at risk, report finds